Graph: Montly importation of urea in Thailand from 25-M05 (May) to 26-M02(February)

During the period 25-M09 to 26-M02, the decline in import value can be explained by several key factors. Firstly, seasonality plays an important role, as fertilizer demand in Thailand is typically concentrated during the main planting season (approximately May to August). As a result, demand naturally declines during the late-year to early-year period.

At the same time, volatile and relatively high fertilizer prices have led importers to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. Importers tend to delay purchases due to concerns that importing at high prices could result in losses if market prices decrease afterward. In addition, domestic fertilizer inventories remain relatively high (around 900,000 tons), reducing the need for immediate imports during this period.

Regarding geopolitical factors, conflicts in regions such as the Middle East have had an indirect impact by disrupting logistics (e.g., shipping delays) and increasing energy costs. These factors have contributed to higher global fertilizer prices and greater market uncertainty, prompting Thai importers to act more cautiously and slow down import activities during the period.

(Bee)