INFORMATION
May 17, 2021
HS-TECH ENGINEERING
Hashimoto Shinya
In late March, corona-virous, mainly infected Thai elites who visited "high-end nightclubs[i]" in Bangkok, expands nationwide and still does not have any phenomena of subsiding even in mid-May. The death toll per million population was less than one in the First Wave and contained to a level of around one person in the Second Wave until last December.
However, as of May 17, the number of deaths had increased sharply to 5.2 times compared with that of the first wave. Thailand is currently in the midst of the Third Wave of the Covid-19 [Figure 1][ii]. Take example for Bangkok, the Metropolitan Authority is prioritizing mass vaccinations in slums at southern areas, where infections are particularly critical[iii].
[First wave: From mid-March 2020] January 30, the first domestic infection from foreign tourist was
observed. (The Emergency declaration issued on March 26, 2020)
Thailand has been successfully containing corona virous since the early 2021 as one of the most dveloped countries who installs cutting-edge healthcare management and health care security system in collaboration with U.K. since 1979. However, it seems that the procurement / arrangement of the vaccine and the production in the country are challenging, and Thai is struggling to obtain herd immunity by vaccination.
On May 5, the Monetary Policy Committee of Bank of Thailand showed three progress cases (scenarios) for vaccination path[ⅳ]. In the worst case 3, the GDP growth rate in 2022 will be downsizing by 5.7 % year-on-year compared to that of the case 1 as a base line [Table 1, Figure 2]
Note 1: The attainment of immunity is based on the condition that 70 million of Thais will be vaccinated, including foreigners who are staying in Thai for a long time (about 3 million). Vaccine, domestically produced in Thai at specific company, certified by Astra Zeneca will start distribution and inoculation from Jun foreigners. The current vaccination rate is around 2-3 %.
Note 2: The number of tourists from abroad in 2019 was 39.8 million.
Note 3: The number of unemployment as of December 2020 was 58. 90,000.
Figure 2 Road to Herd Immunity Attainment (in three Cases)
Source: Bank of Thailand
In an announcement from Thailand Board of Investment (BOT) on May 8th[ⅴ], foreign direct investment (FDI) figure in the overall 2020 showed that there was no significant drop in major business sectors [Figure 3]. In addition, on May 8th, BOI released a report on its website that foreign investment in the 1Q of 2021 from South Korea has become the front runner of the race followed by China and Singapore.
Figure 3 Foreign Direct Investment (by Industry, 2018-2020)
Source: Create by author from the data in Bank of Thailand.
I do believe that Thailand implements various countermeasures resolutely and overcomes this Third Wave in victory.
[i] An admission fee for the night club is tens of thousands of Baht and the clubs were called ‘ Special place’ from Bangkokians.
[ii] In comparison with deaths in Covid-19, WHO estimated in 2018 that traffic death rate in Thai per one million population was 327 person.
[iii] Daily income of the majority of residences in the slum is below 150 Baht (USD 4.8).
The major portion of the CONTENTS of the Master Plan was customized by HS-TECH through the original one, published in September 2020. It is noted that the one is now in the process of consideration.
